Comparison of partitioned survival modeling with state transition modeling approaches with or without consideration of brain metastasis: a case study of Osimertinib versus pemetrexed-platinum.

BACKGROUND: The partitioned survival model (PSM) and the state transition model (STM) are widely used in cost-effectiveness analyses of anticancer drugs. Using different modeling approaches with or without consideration of brain metastasis, we compared the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) estimates of Osimertinib and pemetrexed-platinum in advanced non-small cell lung cancer with epidermal growth factor receptor mutations. METHODS: We constructed three economic models using parametric curves fitted to patient-level data from the National Health Insurance Review and Assessment claims database from 2009 to 2020. PSM and 3-health state transition model (3-STM) consist of three health states: progression-free, post-progression, and death. The 5-health state transition model (5-STM) has two additional health states (brain metastasis with continuing initial therapy, and with subsequent therapy). Time-dependent transition probabilities were calculated in the state transition models. The incremental life-year (LY) and QALY between the Osimertinib and pemetrexed-platinum cohorts for each modeling approach were estimated over seven years. RESULTS: The PSM and 3-STM produced similar incremental LY (0.889 and 0.899, respectively) and QALY (0.827 and 0.840, respectively). However, 5-STM, which considered brain metastasis as separate health states, yielded a slightly higher incremental LY (0.910) but lower incremental QALY (0.695) than PSM and 3-STM. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that incorporating additional health states such as brain metastases into economic models can have a considerable impact on incremental QALY estimates. To ensure appropriate health technology assessment decisions, comparison and justification of different modeling approaches are recommended in the economic evaluation of anticancer drugs.

Survival differences between patients with de novo and relapsed/progressed advanced non-small cell lung cancer without epidermal growth factor receptor mutations or anaplastic lymphoma kinase rearrangements.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine whether patients with de novo and relapsed/progressed stage IIIB-IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) without epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) or anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) mutations have different prognoses. METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed the Health Insurance Review and Assessment claims data in South Korea from 2013 to 2020. Patients with stage IIIB-IV NSCLC without EGFR or ALK mutations who received first-line palliative therapy between 2015 and 2019 were identified. Overall survival (OS), time to first subsequent therapy (TFST), and time to second subsequent therapy (TSST) were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to reveal the impact of de novo versus relapsed/progressed disease on OS. Treatment patterns, including treatment sequence, top five most frequent regimens, and time to treatment discontinuation, were described in both groups. RESULTS: Of 14,505 patients, 12,811 (88.3%) were de novo, and 1,694 (11.7%) were relapsed/progressed. The median OS in the de novo group was 11.0 versus 11.5 months in the relapsed/progressed group (P = 0.002). The ongoing treatment probability was higher in relapsed/progressed patients than in de novo patients from 6.4 months since the initiation of first-line treatment (P < 0.001). Median TSST was shorter in the de novo group than in the relapsed/progressed group (9.5 vs. 9.9 months, P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, de novo disease was associated with shorter OS (hazard ratio 1.07; 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.14). The overall treatment patterns for de novo and relapsed/progressed patients were similar. CONCLUSIONS: De novo patients had poorer OS and TSST after the initiation of palliative therapy than relapsed/progressed patients. These findings suggest that the stage of the disease at the time of initial diagnosis should be considered in observational studies and clinical trials as a prognostic factor.

Health-related quality of life in adult patients with asthma according to asthma control and severity: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The utility values are increasingly being used in economic evaluations and health policy decision making. This study aims to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of the utility values for asthma, particularly with respect to severity and asthma control. Materials and methods: A literature search was conducted using the MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases for studies published until July, 2020, reporting the utilities of adult asthma. We extracted utility values derived by nine indirect and four direct utility instruments. Meta-analyses were performed for each utility instrument according to health states based on the level of asthma control and severity. Results: Fifty-two eligible studies were included in our systematic review, of which forty studies were used in the meta-analyses. Among the 13 utility instruments, the most used was EQ-5D-3L, whereas EQ-5D-5L showed the narrowest 95% confidence interval (95% CI, 0.83-0.86) of pooled utility. The pooled utility of asthma declined with worsening control levels and severity. The pooled utility value of EQ-5D-3L was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.63-0.80) for uncontrolled, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.88) for partly controlled, and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.90) for well-controlled asthma. Conclusion: Our study shows that EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L are appropriate for economic evaluations in terms of availability and variability of information, respectively. Asthma patients had poorer utility values with worsened severity and level of asthma control. This study will be useful for health economists conducting economic evaluations of asthma treatments.

Clinical impact and economic burden of post-transplant infections following heart transplantation: A retrospective nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Post-transplant infections are associated with high mortality rates. This retrospective nationwide cohort study examined the incidence and risk factors of infections requiring hospitalization after heart transplantation and the associated economic burden. METHODS: The entire heart transplant recipients' data from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service between 2013 and 2020 was used. We estimated the annual incidence of post-transplant infections and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) of risk factors for reported infections using the poisson generalized linear model. RESULTS: Among 1,030 heart transplant recipients (324 with and 706 without post-transplant infections), 0.45 post-transplant infections were reported annually, with respiratory tract infections constituting the highest proportion (0.16). The risk of post-transplant infections was high in recipients with renal failure (aIRR = 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.75) or nosocomial infection (aIRR = 1.47; 95% CI, 1.15-1.87). Combination regimens, including mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor (mTORi), did not differ significantly from the standard 3 drug regimen (aIRR = 1.16; 95% CI, 0.80-1.67). The risk of death was higher among recipients with post-transplant infections than in uninfected recipients (adjusted hazard ratio = 4.59; 95% CI, 2.19-9.65). The mean follow-up cost per patient per month was 2-fold higher in recipients with post-transplant infections than in uninfected recipients ($5,096 and $2,532, respectively; p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: mTORi combination, which reportedly maintains renal function, can be considered, as it does not increase the infection risk. Post-transplant infections present clinical and economic burdens, warranting careful observation of at-risk patients.